Pre-Election Polls predict vote-loss for ANC and DA
With less than two weeks to go before South Africans head to the polls in the 2019 national election, the latest poll results from research group Ipsos shows that the DA and ANC may be in trouble. The poll, conducted between March and April 2019 using a demographically representative sample of over 3,600 people, continues a trend seen in many other pre-election polls – showing a drop in support for the DA and ANC, while support for the EFF rises.
According to the latest results, published by the City Press, the *ANC*’s support has dropped from around 61% in its March poll to 56.9% in April. This is down from a 62.2% share of the vote in the 2014 national election. The DA has dropped even further from 18% in March to just 15% in April. The DA secured 22% of the vote in the 2014 elections, so should these snapshots carry through to the election, it would represent a significant drop in support. The EFF, meanwhile, has remained fairly flat at 9.5% (versus 10% in March) – which is still up from its share of the vote in 2014, where it scored 6.4% in the election.
As with all pre-election polls, the results are not a prediction, but rather a snapshot of the voting public’s view at the specific point in time. Ipsos’ results reflect the views of registered voters only. All pre-election polls in 2019 so far have shown the same trend of the ANC losing ground from its 2014 win, and the DA dropping under its peak from the same year. The EFF, meanwhile, is expected to grow support.
Also highlighted in every poll report is the concern over voter turnout, and how this will have a major impact on the results. A low voter turnout would most benefit the ANC, according to the the City Press, with support going as high as 61%.