The Rand Exchange Rate one Day before Elections
One final day to go and the torturous period of electioneering formally draws to a close. We look forward to some calm returning post the official announcements on Saturday once the dust settles.
As we wind down, the latest IRR poll suggests that the ANC will finish off close to 53% with the EFF at 14% and the DA at 24%. The important number is the combination of the ANC and the EFF and the possibility that combined they can reach a two-thirds majority to allow them to force a change to section 25 of the constitution. Although the market has often felt that the best outcome would be a stronger ANC showing to give President Ramaphosa the mandate for reforms, the more logical best-case outcome might be for a smaller ANC win and a less impressive performance by the EFF to keep their combined total below the 66% needed in parliament.
That would certainly make coalition politics interesting and raise the hurdle for what might need to be done to achieve the 66% to change the constitution. It will mean that the EFF holds greater influence, but that is something the ANC will need to manage very carefully if it wants to retain its status and credibility as the senior partner in the coalition, that is in control.